The Obvious Is Taking Its Revenge on Trump

[dalton99a]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-war-trump/686314/

https://archive.ph/8w5VY

The Obvious Is Taking Its Revenge on Trump
The reasons other U.S. presidents avoided war with Iran are becoming all too evident.
By Franklin Foer
March 11, 2026, 9:09 AM ET

In the least charitable — and probably accurate — view, President Trump went to war with Iran out of a delusional faith in himself. He believed that the worst-case scenarios that have deterred past presidents from attacking Iran wouldn’t come true for him, because he is Donald Trump.

In the most charitable — and probably accurate — view, the president had reasons to believe that all of the catastrophic warnings about the most hair-raising consequences of an attack wouldn’t come to pass this time. The 12-day war, which Israel and the United States fought last June, demonstrated that they could strike Iran without provoking catastrophic retaliation. Having endured that assault on the country’s military infrastructure, and then wave after wave of protest by its own citizens, the Islamic Republic was isolated and weak. So why shouldn’t Trump exploit that fragility to land a death blow against a murderous adversary?

I could nearly convince myself of these arguments, except that almost no other foreign-policy question has been studied harder over the past 20 years or so than the likely effect of U.S. military strikes on Iran. The many years spent pondering and preparing for a potential attack on Iran are the reason that the first days of the war were, for the most part, a bravura display of American power. Yet all of that study also pointed out the risks: spiking oil prices, the spread of violence throughout the Middle East, civilian casualties of the sort now evidenced by an apparent U.S. missile strike near an Iranian elementary school. When past presidents balked at the possibility of war with Iran, they weren’t just dodging a hard choice; they were deterred by all of the obvious reasons a conflict could perilously spiral. Nobody should be shocked that the expected is now coming to pass.

To begin, there’s geography. Just 35 miles across at its narrowest, the Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world and is surrounded on three sides by Iran. One-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied-natural-gas supply passes through an Iranian turkey shoot. Fighting for its survival, Iran has the capacity to choke fossil-fuel markets by launching sporadic attacks on passing tankers, enough to deter companies and their insurers from justifying that risk. A hard fact of geography was always going to be a hard fact of war.

...

[Maru Kitteh]

1. An excellent read

Thanks for sharing

[AverageOldGuy]

2. Way back . . . .

. . . back in the dawn of history, there was an old US Navy officer, Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840 -1914). Mahan was a graduate of the US Military Academy at West Point who entered the Navy -- before the days of the Naval Academy.

Mahan spent a lot of time at sea as well as a lot of time reading and thinking about things.

Mahan has been called "the most important American strategist of the nineteenth century." His 1890 book The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783 is still required study for senior military officers.

One of Mahan's treatises deals with what he termed "the narrow seas" -- those narrow straits and passages through which much of the world's commerce passes and through which almost all commerce in some regions passes. Control of these "narrow seas" is critical to both economic power and naval power.

Strait of Malacca
Strait of Hormuz
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
Strait of Gibraltar
Danish Straits
Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles)
Bering Strait
Taiwan Strait
Strait of Dover
Strait of Magellan
Mozambique Channel
Suez Canal
Panama Canal

No doubt Trump and Hogsbreath have damn near memorized Mahan. Right?

[ananda]

12. excellent post

Wnen you are playing war like toddlers
in a sandbox using chess pieces madec
out of your own shit (aka sycophants),
why would you need to read experts and
history...

especially when your minders and enablers
are sitting on the side clapping because
you are making them richer?

[Girard442]

3. No problem. We'll just carry the oil past the Strait of Hormuz in buckets.

There's jillions of Medicare freeloaders who can be forced to do it, amirite?

[democrank]

4. Trump's negative character traits most likely led to the bombing of Iran.

What was it that Trump said about another subject a while back? Something about only he alone could fix it. Trump has told us a zillion times that he’s the biggest this or the best that. He says he does things never before seen in the history of history. Problem is, he knows nothing about history. Nothing.

A little flattery (“Sir”) allows others to lead the malleable Trump in whatever direction they want him to go. The promise of leaders worldwide erecting statues in his honor would probably been enough. Trump being victorious, standing on the top of the heap was probably factored in with help from his bullying nature, lust for cruelty.

Trump must be proud. He can flatten parts of the world he thinks don’t deserve to exist, all from the comfort of a party room at his Florida theme park home.

[Irish_Dem]

5. Trump is a narcissistic psychopath.

He truly thinks he is the smartest person in the room, always.

Everyone else is stupid.
Anyone who doesn't like him must be jealous of how smart, handsome, talented he is.

So no one can tell him anything.
He is always the expert on any topic.

And the lives or welfare of others have no meaning for him.
Everyone is just a prop in the movie that runs in his head.
He is the star of the show, and the only one who matters.
The rest of us are disposable.

[Blue_Roses]

14. Well said!

That is spot on

[dem4decades]

10. You forgot the part that he knows more than the generals, and admirals too, i guess

[Auggie]

6. Meanwhile, a select a few are making a lot of money ...

because we are governed by kleptocracy. Profiteering is the friend of war. Victory is not always the obvious or original objective.

[betsuni]

7. He doesn't really know where Iran is or anything about it. Just sounded like a fun weekend excursion.

[Swede]

13. Don Lemon back in the day with Rick Wilson saying Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a map.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/01/26/pompeo-ukraine-bangladesh-npr-ctn-sot-vpx.cnn

[Ray Bruns]

8. "Nobody should be shocked that the expected is now coming to pass"

But everyone in the White House probably was. Bunch of morons.

[OldBaldy1701E]

9. I don't see why people are thinking that the orange gibbon has the brains to do this.

It isn't him.

It is that ghoul sitting behind him. A few of them, to be honest.

We really need to stop using him as a 'blame-all' when there is ample evidence that Miller and his rich cronies are the ones behind this.

It is just another oil grab from the country that could stop with the dependency... but we are too beholden to the oil companies.

Otherwise, it makes no sense to hang on to an outdated mode of energy... other than control of the markets and the profits, of course.