How Winning The Senate Comfortably Could Remove Trump From Office

[VBNMW_Realist]

In this document, I will be talking about how Trump could be removed in theory. The first thing I want you to know is that in order to remove a president or any other federal official, it takes 2 out of 3 votes in the Senate. It is effectively impossible for Democrats to have those seats on their own, but there is a workaround.

Even though it may feel like the Senate is capped at around 52 seats for Democrats, there are extra seats that Democrats could win. Iowa, Ohio and Florida would be seats 52 to 54. These are the Obama era swing states which have since turned into likely or even solid red states. Having even something like 53 Senate seats is potentially enough to spook Republicans into voting for conviction. What I mean by that is even if that is going to play well in a primary election and they would be able to easily hold a general election too, there is a code of ethics that is largely ignored on the Republican side, but facing what might be considered the maximum electorally possible loss or close to it might make them buckle because of not wanting to be on the wrong side of history if nothing else.

We have seen crossover votes on certain matters, including votes to confirm people on the Democratic side in both of Trump’s terms or even Republicans voting for some Biden appointees. The most important example was the January 6 case, where nearly 60 Senators voted yes for the impeachment despite there only being 50 Democrats in the Senate counting the independents who always caucus and work with the Democrats (Sanders and King). That was the code of ethics in action that I mentioned. Mitch McConnell chose not to follow it on this vote, and if he did, Trump might be in prison right now given how other Senate votes have gone down.

Is this a pipe dream? Probably. But I think it is just realistic enough it deserves a shoutout as a reason that voting matters. Winning enough seats to oust Trump in the Senate with purely Democratic votes is utterly implausible as it would require winning all but two Republican held seats and 10 to 15 of those are not flipping under any circumstances. It would happen if the performances in primaries carry over.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. If we got 76 seats and could keep our Fettermans below 6 or 7, we might have a chance. /nt

[onenote]

2. Unrealistic.

Plain and simple.

[VBNMW_Realist]

3. Sadly I have to agree with you.

[awesomerwb1]

4. Not gonna happen

The Senate will remain Maga. The House will probably go Democratic unless massive fraud, ICE disruptions at precincts etc occur which is possible. Troubling times.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. You haven't been paying attention

Dems will hold the seats in GA, NH and MI, and flip NC and OH- that’s 49

That means they just need to flip two seats out of ME, AK, IA, TX, which are all within reach, and FL, NE and MT being outside possibilities.

A year ago, nobody thought Dems had a chance to take back the senate, but a lot has changed in a year.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Meanwhile, back in the reality based community...

You haven’t really laid out a theory, let alone evidence to support that theory.

I think the odds are better (but still slim) that Republicans could remove Trump before the midterms (George Conway, running for congress as a democrat, thinks it’s possible, not that his opinion is worth anything).

Think about it- right now, the senate contains numerous senators, Tillis, Cornyn, and others, who are retiring or have been primaried out, aren’t afraid of Trump anymore, and simply Don’t GAF.

They won’t be around in 2027, and hopefully will be replaced by Talarico, Cooper and other progressives, but the math still isn’t there, so the best we can expect is ongoing investigations and hearings to expose the corruption and set the stage for 2028.