'Big mistakes': Pollsters face recriminations for missing the Mamdani surge
No pollster was able to fully capture the energy of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as he cruised to victory in New York City’s mayoral primary Tuesday — including failing to see the enthusiasm among young voters who came out in droves for the high-turnout election.
It’s another moment of reflection for an industry that continues to face an onslaught of criticism, and pollsters were quick to point out that there was plenty wrong with the surveys done in the race.
Most pollsters will survey past primary voters in order to get an accurate prediction. In this case, not including the influx of likely first-time primary voters proved to be a crucial misstep. Though former Gov. Andrew Cuomo appeared to have an edge in the polls, his perceived advantage ultimately did not account for a key portion of Mamdani’s base and led pollsters to one of their biggest misses.
Tom Jensen said that’s where his firm — left-leaning Public Policy Polling — succeeded.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/25/polling-miss-nyc-mamdani-mayor-00424233
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