Milei's Macri mirror
OPINION AND ANALYSIS | Yesterday 07:14
Javier Milei and Luis Caputo want the economy to be booming when the country goes to vote in October. The question is how much it will cost them – and the country.
Marcelo J. García
Political analyst and Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm.
Segundo Tiempo | @KidNavajoArt
For the fifth consecutive month, the public’s trust in President Javier Milei's administration has fallen. The index published by Di Tella University since November 2001 is one of the most consistent approval rating polls in the country: almost a year-and-a-half into office, Milei scored 2.33 points out of 5 in April – better than his predecessor Alberto Fernández at the same stage (2.26) but worse than Mauricio Macri (2.51).
The comparison with Macri is one of the key questions being asked abroad about the future of Milei and there are obvious parallels. Like the current head of state, the PRO was a rising centre-right leader who beat the Peronists at the ballot-box to inaugurate a new economic era in Argentina. But Macri’s economic programme failed, burdened by massive debt (with the private sector first, with the International Monetary Fund later) and his inability to lower inflation and poverty. Macri won the 2017 midterms but lost his re-election bid to Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2019.
Milei is following a similar path, with some caveats. He has taken on new debt (with the IMF) to strengthen Central Bank reserves and make it to the midterms in October with a stable economy and declining inflation. Unlike Macri, he does not have a fiscal deficit, but like the PRO co-founder, he is over-appreciating the peso to anchor his anti-inflation policy. The result in both cases is a current account deficit – i.e., the country spends more US dollars than it earns. Macri did not correct it on time – Milei still has time to correct it.
Milei and his economic chief Luis Caputo want the economy to be booming when the country goes to vote in October. The question is how much it will cost them – and the country. The numbers to follow are the Central Bank reserves and current account figures. the IMF surely will surely be monitoring them too.
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Milei’s public appearances, be they on TV or social media, continue to focus on slamming his critics, most of the time in the form of insults. Somebody should tell him: the story of his Presidency is not about being right, but about Argentines believing he has served them correctly.
More:
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/opinion-and-analysis/mileis-macri-mirror.phtml
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