MIT Modeling In The Wake of CRAP 30 Shows 1.5C By 2030, 1.8C By 2050 And 3C By 2100
Ed. - And the headline is based on the mid-range projection.
After yet another international climate summit ended last fall without binding commitments to phase out fossil fuels, a leading global climate model is offering a stark forecast for the decades ahead. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) “2025 Global Change Outlook” finds the world on track to exceed key climate thresholds under current policies, even as renewable energy expands rapidly. Released amid stalled global cooperation and the United States’ withdrawal from major climate commitments, the report projects continued emissions growth and dangerous levels of warming by the end of the century.
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Those gains from renewable energy are largely offset by ongoing economic and population growth. Global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise until around 2030, driven primarily by growth in developing countries, while emissions in developed nations, as well as in China and India, remain largely stagnant. Much of this increase comes from continued use of liquid fuels and natural gas. Between 2030 and 2050, emissions are projected to decline slowly, only to rise again later in the century, partly due to agricultural emissions linked to population growth.
With no significant emissions reductions on the horizon, the model projects global temperatures are likely to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next few years, reach roughly 1.8 degrees by 2050, and approach 3 degrees by 2100. These projections represent the model’s “middle of the road path,” or most likely outcome. Across hundreds of simulations, some outcomes show far greater warming, while others fall below that central estimate.
“The findings align with other models and with my own modeling from about a decade ago,” said Ross Salawitch, an atmospheric researcher and climate modeler at the University of Maryland. According to Salawitch, political challenges and energy demand exceeding early projections explain why emissions reductions are not yet clearly reflected in current long-term projections. More recent independent analyses point to similar outcomes. Rhodium Group estimates “middle-of-the-road” warming of about 2.7 degrees by century’s end, while Climate Action Tracker projects 2.5 degrees to 2.9 degrees, depending on future policy.
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https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24012026/post-cop-30-modeling-shows-world-is-far-off-track-for-climate-goals/