Let's talk about US officials and Canadian Separatists.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about US officials meeting with Canadian separatists.

Reporting has come out that a group of Canadians from Alberta, which is an oil rich province in Western Canada, have met with US officials. They want independence for Alberta. For Americans, think of it like Texas--oil rich, the West, conservative except for a few cities and there's always that little undercurrent of people who want to break away. But it isn't the mainstream opinion, it's a bumper sticker, not a real position for most people.

Reporting says there's another meeting coming where the separatists will be trying to convince the US to give a potential country of Alberta a half a trillion dollar line of credit. Canadian officials are incredibly unhappy. David Eby, the premier of British Columbia, said, "We've got free speech. That's important. But to go to a foreign country and to ask for assistance in breaking up Canada, there's an old-fashioned word for that, and that word is treason."

Prime Minister Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has so far avoided using the T-word, but said, "We expect the US administration to respect Canadian sovereignty. I'm always clear in my conversation with President Trump to that effect and then move on to what we can do together."

To clarify a conversation that will probably happen between Canadians and Americans. Canadians, our Constitution is really specific about what constitutes treason. So, you'll probably have Americans say that isn't really treason. For Americans, most countries have a much wider definition of treason. I am not an expert on Canadian law, so I'm not weighing in on that. But what I will say is that generally speaking, nations find it objectionable when another nation meddles in things like separatist activity. That's even more true if they're your ally. So don't blame Canada because they're mad.

The White House didn't deny the meetings and tried to shrug it off, saying that no commitments had been made. Obviously, this is an international incident that will damage US-Canadian relations even more. It will also damage our relationships with our other allies.

So, where does this sit? Is it really going to move forward? Right now, the separatists are trying to get a referendum on separation. Odds are high that they'll get their referendum on the topic. Odds are higher that they'll lose the vote because it's a lot like Texas. Everybody says they want to break away until, you know, they think about what they lose.

Support for Alberta independence is about 28%. But when people are asked to consider anything beyond a bumper sticker slogan, that drops by about half. Beyond that, indigenous communities in Alberta are going to have a pretty big say. They have treaties that predate the province.

When viewing this through a foreign policy lens, it's actually even worse for the US. The two things we say all the time. Nations don't have friends, they have interests. And foreign policy isn't about right and wrong. It's about power.

We upset an ally again. Undercut our own interest with that ally. Lost influence with other allies. Undercutting our power. All to entertain a nationalist fever dream that really doesn't have a high chance of success. Even when you take the Canada has been our ally forever part out of it, it's still not a good move for the US. Also, half a trillion dollars. Really, we can't get health care or student debt forgiveness, but we can set up a new country.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.