Let's talk about Trump setting the scene to leave Iran... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump setting the scene to leave Iran.

Trump decided to talk a little more about his plans for Iran and to be honest, in some ways, it really just seemed like he was trying to calm the oil markets, but in others, well, he was all over the place. At various points, he said the US mission there was pretty well complete. Then he said, "We haven't won enough." At one point, he said it would “be over soon.” Then at another, he said, "Not this week."

The messaging was so bad that it's prompted a lot of questions about what exactly he meant. Here's one. "Belle, you said Trump should just declare victory and walk away. that it's the only move that makes sense. Am I giving him too much credit or is his chicken and waffles, I love that term by the way, about the timeline and goals him trying to push the idea out there that his goals weren't really regime change. I don't want to say he's doing 4D chess, but it seems like he's Jedi mind- tricking the media into forgetting what he said. Am I really wrong about this? Does he realize how much he messed this up? Do you think people will realize that he actually made things worse and then he'd just be giving up?”

Okay, so let's start with this. Trump is not a source, but Rubio kind of is if you understand his messages are specifically crafted for the MAGA base. Forget about what Trump said. Rubio said and State Department social media pushed out a pretty specific talking point. "The goals of the mission against the Iran regime are clear. Destroy their ability to launch missiles. Destroy factories making these missiles. Destroy their navy. That's it. End of list."

That to me suggests there are at least some in the administration that are trying to set new victory conditions. It's not regime change. It's not WMDs. It's none of that stuff they said was the reason for the war. Missiles and their navy. Incidentally, the new victory conditions pretty well align with what the US Air Force and Navy have already accomplished. It's completely probable that they're setting the political landscape so they can just declare victory and walk away or that they at least have the option to.

Now to the other questions. Does Trump realize how much he messed up? I seriously doubt it. I don't think he understands the long-term consequences of this or much at all really. But I think he understands it isn't going well.

Next one was, "Do you think people will realize that he actually made things worse and that he'd just be giving up?" I'm going to be honest. I hope people don't. Not until we're out of there. Americans have this weird thing where they might decide to jump head first into a sunk cost fallacy and want to double down on a giant mistake. The cost of that would be immense. This was bad and it hurt the US for years to come, but he can still make it so much worse.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.