I got into the weeds a little. Here is what I think is the heart of it:
How Would Sequestration Affect Medicare and Other Programs,
Assuming That Funding Subject to Sequestration Remained Equal to the
Amounts in CBO’s January 2025 Baseline Projections?
Under S-PAYGO, reductions in Medicare spending are limited to 4 percent—
or an estimated $45 billion for fiscal year 2026. That would leave $185 billion
to be sequestered from the federal budget’s remaining direct spending
accounts in that year.
S-PAYGO exempts many large accounts, including those that provide funding
for Social Security and low-income programs. Therefore, in CBO’s
estimation, OMB would have roughly $120 billion in budgetary resources
available for cancellation in 2026—less than the remaining amount that would
be required to be sequestered.3
4% may not seem like much but consider that healthcare costs rise by a good amount each year, idk, and who knows how it would be applied. Maybe NO payments for the last weeks of each fiscal year? Unless of course paygo is waived in a future congress. A catastrophe if you get sick at the wrong time of the year.
Even worse for the other budget items that are not exempt, because apparently they would be zeroed out.
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