BEA news release:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2025
# PCE: April: +0.1%, 12 months: 2.1%, 3 month average annualized: 2.1%
# Core PCE: +0.1%, 12 months: 2.5%, 3 month average annualized: 2.7%
The 3 month number is my calculation from the actual index values.
PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
Core PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
The above takes a while to update, and as of 906 AM ET, they haven't been updated.
For the index values of the last several months, Table 5 in the news release has the numbers, and that's where I got them. Choose Full Release and Tables, NOT Tables only.
This is known as a lying asshole inflation index. It takes substitution fully into account. So for example if high and rising beef prices cause enough people to switch to turkey necks, a lying asshole index (aka chained price index) shows that as a reduction in meat prices. For that reason, I have little regard for this index.
Unfortunately, for anyone trying to understand and predict Fed policy, this, especially the core measure, is their favorite index. Probably because it is almost always lower than the CPI, so it makes it appear the Fed is doing a better job than it really is in getting inflation down.
The latest CPI report, released May 13, is at https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143458249
my CPI graphs are at https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143458249#post15
The CPI (and I'm pretty sure this is true for the PCE as well) does not include home prices because they consider it an investment, not a consumption item (the home seller gains from a high home price while the buyer is screwed). They don't include home insurance or property taxes either. Instead they use "owner's equivalent rent" - a homeowner's estimate of what the property would rent for, under the theory that this is the income foregone by the homeowner for living there as opposed to renting it out, i.e. what the homeowner is "consuming" by living there.
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