Will Texas Ever Turn Blue? Here's What The Data Tells Us:

[Bucky]

6. That "demographic inevitability" argument is 22 years old

Teixeira & Judis's The Emerging Democratic Majority always struck me as a little naive, assuming that a good chunk of Hispanic and Asian voting blocks won't move towards the Republican Party as their kids assimilate and move upwards economically. We also see the blue collar "meanness and resentment" turn that Maga has made in Republican messaging is also making inroads with significant, if still minority, factions in the black vote.

We live in a dumb, fact-free world today. Democrats continue to put more emphasis on race and social issues and not enough emphasis on pocketbook and quality of life issues. We mostly message the kitchen table issues during the campaign, as seen by the fact that most voters think the economy was better under Trump than under Biden--that is a gargantuan failure of messaging on the part of our team.

So I don't say Texas will never turn blue, but treating it like an inevitable flip that's always just right around the corner is naive and self-defeating. It kind of reminds me of the fundamentalists waiting for Jesus to return. Their faith is so strong, and yet the rapture and apocalypse aren't even in the Bible!

Even getting most of the voters with you is no guarantee. I mean lordy, look at Wisconsin! They've had voting Democratic majorities for over a decade and still can't take control of their state legislature. I hate to sound pessimistic, but the facts just ain't pointing towards a blue Texas