it will be turnout turnout turnout required types of races which might be tricky. In the cases of WI and PA, there are also gubernatorial elections so that tends to up the turnout more than some of the usual off-term or mid-term elections.
I think Kelly probably the best chance (particularly with any who are pissed off with Sinema). NV & WI had similar close races but would probably come in 2nd.
PA is up in the air because it's an open seat with no incumbent, but with Fetterman pretty much on the "national stage" (due to his many appearances on MSM), he has a good chance - again if we can get the urban turnout going. Fetterman has a base in western PA but has made himself known statewide and can capture many of the indie pro-MJ legalization crowd plus the vote-rich SE part of the state where 1/3rd of the state's population lives.
The one thing that is being lofted by the local political pundits here is the fact that PA hasn't had 2 (D) Senators since the 1940s (not counting when Arlen Specter changed parties in 2009 from R to D), so it's a bit of a "mental" hurdle to get over. However precedent had already been broken with the election of Tom Wolf as governor for his first term in 2014/2015, beating incumbent Tom Corbett, where governors who ran for 2nd terms (no matter which party) always won re-election PRIOR to Wolf making Corbett a 1-term governor and snapping that 50+ year record.
I am also heartened by Josh Shapiro running for governor here (Wolf is a lame duck in his 2nd term) because like Fetterman, he has also garnered "national attention" as a superstar AG, with few on the (D) side really ready to seriously challenge him in a primary.
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