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progree

(11,904 posts)
5. I think I read that the average pullback in a year is 14% -- some years have a downturn
Sun Jul 3, 2022, 03:47 AM
Jul 2022

larger than 14%, some years less than 14%, but the average such was 14%. So years with double digit pullbacks are the norm.

But some seem to be calling this the long foretold big one
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1116&pid=93601

I replied with a little market history -- first, we've seen worse and made it. And then what's happened since Obama began forming his transition team, which is mentioned as something like the beginning of the bad happenings or whatever --

We've had worse since WWII: To take the 3 worst ones:

Max ...........Time to
pullback ... recover..... Crash Name

48.4%     7.5 years,     73-74
49.1%     7.2 years,     DotCom
56.8%     5.5 years,     Housing Bubble

The max pullback is the percentage drop from the pre-crash peak to the lowest point ("peak to trough" )

The time to recover is the time from the pre-crash peak to when it reached that same level again.

The total U.S. stock market, as measured by the Vanguard Total (U.S.) Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX)
has grown 5.13 fold since November 3, 2008 (includes reinvested distributions) to June 29, 2022 close, a 12.72% average annualized return during these 13.65 years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTSAX/history

(the June 30 close wasn't in yet as I wrote that)

For a longer view --
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

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