Russia's Economic Collapse: The Hidden Role of Time Preference - Econ Lessons

[Warpy]

1. I don't see much of a buying binge in Russia

with the exception of food. With potatoes, butter, eggs, and poultry in short supply, and prices going up rapidly, it's understandable that there is a great deal of anxiety there. Russians are certainly not ubying apartments or cars, new construction and Russia's automotive industries have already pretty much collapsed already.

It remains to be seen shat Putin will do as banks and industries start to collapse. My best guess says he'll nationalize the whole kit and kaboodle, creating a Soviet-esque economy. It won't be any better than the first iteration and will probably fall faster.

The social indicators of an imminent collapse are even more obvious than the economic ones: a divorce rate in 2024 of 73%, a falling birthrate, funeral homes the one industry showing a healthy profit margin while they push "co friendly" cardboard coffins at their clients instead of the traditional wood, which they're running out of.

Even if Russia is able to create and sell a quasi Marxist economy again, the demographic bomb that's set to go off about 25 years from now will just about finish them---unless they pull off some sort of economic miracle and people actually want to live there.